What Past Cycles Say Happens Before the Bottom
Bitcoin price dropped 25% in 2022 and 50% in 2018 after similar on-chain loss signals, a warning sign for BTC’s next move.
Bitcoin (BTC) traders are selling at a loss for the first time since 2022, raising odds that the biggest cryptocurrency’s ongoing price correction may deepen in the coming weeks.
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin is witnessing loss-driven selling that has historically lasted six months or more.
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These signals surfaced during previous bear markets, preceding sharp downtrends each time.
BTC capitulation may last for another six months
On Monday, Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio (90-day moving average) slipped below 1.
The drop indicated that traders were dumping their BTC holdings at a loss, which is often linked to panic selling, margin pressure, or broader risk-off conditions.
Historically, breaks below 1 preceded at least six months of loss realization, according to on-chain data resource Glassnode. Meanwhile, a move back above 1 usually suggests that selling pressure is easing.
Traders often sell at a loss when they expect the downtrend to continue. In prior bear markets, loss-taking typically accelerated midway through the cycle, followed by more downside in Bitcoin’s price.
During the 2022 bear market, for instance, BTC declined 25% six months after its realized profit/loss ratio dropped below 1. In 2018, it plunged by over 50% in five months under similar conditions, as shown below.
The BTC price may continue its downtrend for another five months or more if history repeats. That will confirm “a full transition into an excess loss-realization regime,” Glassnode wrote.
Bitcoin price may bottom around $44,000
Bitcoin’s rising loss-realization may, therefore, drag the BTC price into its “extreme low” valuation zones.
These lows exist within the MVRV Pricing Bands metric, which maps where Bitcoin reaches extreme unrealized profit or loss zones. Historically, its lowest band (the blue line) has coincided with Bitcoin bear market bottoms.
As of February, the extreme low was around $43,760, a potential downside target by August if BTC’s price decline continue further.
Related: Bitcoin’s Mayer Multiple hits 2022 levels: Where is BTC price bottom?
The level also sits within the broader $40,000–$50,000 bottom range flagged by multiple analysts as a potential late-2026 target.
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