Will this time be different?
Analysts in both crypto and traditional markets have noted some startling similarities between the recent downturn and the one caused by a pandemic panic in March, 2020.
The real question is whether it’s the start of a larger downturn or if there will be a significant bounce-back as in 2020 that led to an extended bull run in both crypto and stocks markets.
Podcaster and author of The Pomp Letter, Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano is on the permabull side of the ledger, tweeting on May 18 that since March 1, 2020 when one Bitcoin cost about $8,545, “Bitcoin is up 340%.”
Bitcoin is up 340% since March 1, 2020.
As central banks around the world devalued their currencies at a historic rate, there is only one asset that stood out from the pack.#bitcoin is the savings technology that shields billions of people from undisciplined monetary policy.
— Pomp (@APompliano) May 17, 2022
Among those hopeful of a turnaround is investment firm Real Vision’s CEO Raoul Pal who believes Bitcoin markets have been painting a pattern that shares traits with the March 2020 crash.
In his May 13 episode of Raoul Pal Adventures in Crypto, Pal explained that with the downward price action last week, Bitcoin (BTC) may have “shot straight down” to the bottom of the current wedge formation and is now in a range that will eventually lead to another rise in price. He said,
“That was exactly the kind of pattern we had in March 2020.”
On March 12, 2020, investors panic-sold many assets, including Bitcoin, as fear about how the market would be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and global lockdowns. On that day, Bitcoin fell 45% from $7,935 to $5,142 according to CoinGecko.
The current decline in traditional markets has led to a loss of $7.6 trillion in market cap from the tech heavy Nasdaq, in non-inflation adjusted terms, more than the dot-com bubble and the March 2020 sell-offs.
The numbers are obviously not adjusted for inflation but still mind-blowing to see in this context. pic.twitter.com/aHem93mhpo
— Mati Greenspan (@MatiGreenspan) May 17, 2022
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged to 8 on May 17 which is the lowest since March 2020.
#Crypto fear & greed index is at 8 out of 100.
The lowest number since the COVID-19 crash in March 2020. pic.twitter.com/jKVTcjrXV1
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 17, 2022
The 50 day moving average (MA) of financials, real estate, and technology investments is close to the overwhelmingly oversold levels seen just over two years ago. Respectively, in March 2020 those levels were 0, 0, and 1 compared to 2, 3, and 4 so far in May based on data from Fidelity Investments. In a May 18 tweet, Fidelity’s own Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer called March 2020 “one of the most oversold setups in the history of the market.”
Managing partner at The Future Fund Gary Black pointed out on May 17 that Tesla (TSLA) is trading at a 20% discount, the widest from analyst target price since March 2020. He added that “Over the next 12 months, $TSLA rose 660%.”
The last time $TSLA traded at this wide a discount (25%) vs the avg Street PT ($984) was in March 2020, at the height of the Covid crisis. Over the next 12 months, $TSLA rose 660%. Source: https://t.co/5fcVwWX78i pic.twitter.com/z2AHe5zkVi
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) May 16, 2022
The S&P 500 Index also displays similarities as it recorded a 52-week low of 3,930 on May 12 only to bounce back to 4,088 by market close on May 17. Chief Market Strategist for financial research firm LPL Research observed in a May 18 tweet that the last time the index had done that was in March 2020.
The S&P 500 just made a 2% gain in two of the past three days coming off of a 52-week low.
The last times that happened?
March 2009 and March 2020.
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) May 17, 2022
Before traders get too excited, market conditions are very different now, with rising inflation and interest rates. Back then, governments reacted with unprecedented support packages to prop up prices. Reuters reported on May 14 that the strong bounce in the market in 2020 was fueled by what it called an “unprecedented Fed stimulus.”
Analyst and author of the Rekt Capital Newsletter, Rekt Capital tweeted on May 17 that BTC “is entering a period of outsized opportunity” based on analysis of the Log Channel which he says resembles what happened in March 2020. However he’s not clear if we’ve bottomed out yet.
Related: Fear & Greed Index hits lowest since March 2020 even as Bitcoin price hits $30.5K
Last time #BTC lost the Log Channel was in March 2020
This is when $BTC also dipped below the blue 200-SMA
Log Channel clearly shows BTC is entering a period of outsized opportunity
But does price need to drop as low as to the 200-SMA to completely bottom?#Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/hTxwfWYdkH
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) May 16, 2022
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is up 1.1% over the past 24 hours trading at $30,545.